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Revisiting the association between temperature and COVID-19 transmissibility across 117 countries

Simiao Chen, Klaus Prettner, Bin Cao, Pascal Geldsetzer, Michael Kuhn, David E. Bloom, Till Bärnighausen, Chen Wang
ERJ Open Research 2020 6: 00550-2020; DOI: 10.1183/23120541.00550-2020
Simiao Chen
1Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
2Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
11Co-first authors
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  • ORCID record for Simiao Chen
Klaus Prettner
3Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Dept of Economics, Vienna, Austria
11Co-first authors
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Bin Cao
4Dept of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China–Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
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Pascal Geldsetzer
1Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
5Division of Primary Care and Population Health, Dept of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
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Michael Kuhn
6Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, OeAW, University Vienna), Vienna Institute of Demography, Vienna, Austria
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David E. Bloom
7Dept of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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Till Bärnighausen
1Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
2Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
7Dept of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
8Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), Somkhele, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
12Co-senior authors
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Chen Wang
2Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
4Dept of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China–Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
9National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Beijing, China
10Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing, China
12Co-senior authors
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  • For correspondence: wangchen@pumc.edu.cn
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    FIGURE 1

    Scatterplots of the logarithm of cases per million inhabitants against temperature. Association between temperature and COVID-19 transmissibility (natural logarithm of cases per million inhabitants) across 117 countries. a) Bivariate log-linear regression of COVID-19 prevalence on temperature (p-value=<0.0001; Akaike information criterion (AIC)=439.4; Bayesian information criterion (BIC)=444.9; R-squared=0.32). b) Regression including a quadratic specification for temperature (p-value of linear term=0.008; p-value of quadratic term=0.191; AIC=439.6; BIC=447.9; R-squared=0.33). c) Multiple log-linear regression of COVID-19 prevalence on temperature (p-value=0.005; AIC=189.9; BIC=209.5; R-squared=0.72). d) Multiple regression including a quadratic specification for temperature (p-value of linear term=0.494; p-value of quadratic term=0.201; AIC=189.9; BIC=211.7; R-squared=0.73). Only countries with more than 100 cases reported as of April 10, 2020 were included. In all the multiple regressions we control for “air travel” (i.e. the number of air passengers per capita in a country), “distance from Wuhan” (i.e. the distance of the capital city of a country from Wuhan, the original epicentre of the epidemic, in thousands of kilometres), “vehicle concentration” (i.e. the number of registered vehicles per capita), “urbanisation” (i.e. the percentage of the population living in cities), “testing intensity” (i.e. the number of tests per confirmed case), “cell phone usage” (i.e. the number of cell phones per capita), and “income” (i.e. the purchasing power adjusted per capita gross domestic product in a country).

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Revisiting the association between temperature and COVID-19 transmissibility across 117 countries
Simiao Chen, Klaus Prettner, Bin Cao, Pascal Geldsetzer, Michael Kuhn, David E. Bloom, Till Bärnighausen, Chen Wang
ERJ Open Research Oct 2020, 6 (4) 00550-2020; DOI: 10.1183/23120541.00550-2020

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Revisiting the association between temperature and COVID-19 transmissibility across 117 countries
Simiao Chen, Klaus Prettner, Bin Cao, Pascal Geldsetzer, Michael Kuhn, David E. Bloom, Till Bärnighausen, Chen Wang
ERJ Open Research Oct 2020, 6 (4) 00550-2020; DOI: 10.1183/23120541.00550-2020
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