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Underestimation of COVID-19 mortality during the pandemic

Stacey Kung, Marjan Doppen, Melissa Black, Irene Braithwaite, Ciléin Kearns, Mark Weatherall, Richard Beasley, Nethmi Kearns
ERJ Open Research 2021 7: 00766-2020; DOI: 10.1183/23120541.00766-2020
Stacey Kung
1Medical Research Institute of New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand
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  • For correspondence: stacey.kung@mrinz.ac.nz
Marjan Doppen
1Medical Research Institute of New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand
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Melissa Black
1Medical Research Institute of New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand
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Irene Braithwaite
1Medical Research Institute of New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand
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Ciléin Kearns
1Medical Research Institute of New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand
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Mark Weatherall
2Dept of Medicine, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand
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Richard Beasley
1Medical Research Institute of New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand
3Capital and Coast District Health Board, Wellington, New Zealand
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Nethmi Kearns
1Medical Research Institute of New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand
3Capital and Coast District Health Board, Wellington, New Zealand
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    FIGURE 1

    The weekly reported all-cause mortality in 2020, historical all-cause mortality based on previous 5-year mortality data and expected all-cause mortality calculated from historical all-cause mortality plus COVID-19 mortality data in a) 14 European countries (the Financial Times had 1 week of data missing in April for Portugal) and b) eight non-European countries.

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  • TABLE 1

    Historical and reported all-cause mortality, excess deaths, reported COVID-19 deaths and proportion of excess deaths attributed to COVID-19, in 22 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

    CountryHistorical all-cause deaths#Reported all-cause deaths in
    2020
    Excess deathsCOVID-19 deathsReported period
    Reported deathsProportion of excess deaths¶ %
    Austria57 89959 272137375454.930 Dec–13 Sep
    Belgium47 91356 07481619472116.106 Jan–30 Aug
    Brazil518 306573 82255 51648 95488.204 Jan–19 Jun
    Chile76 68491 69015 00612 05880.402 Jan–16 Sep
    Denmark33 37533 131−244621−254.502 Jan–12 Aug
    Ecuador49 76986 51536 74610 96329.802 Jan–16 Sep
    France411 181428 55417 37330 698176.706 Jan–06 Sep
    Germany587 931602 11514 184866861.106 Jan–23 Aug
    Iceland13721379710142.930 Dec–09 Aug
    Israel30 81732 2781461114778.502 Jan–16 Sep
    Italy307 680347 19439 51427 6707009 Jan–23 Jun
    Netherlands102 945113 04210 097624961.909 Jan–16 Sep
    New Zealand24 79224 247−54525−4.606 Jan–27 Sep
    Norway27 40727 007−400264−6630 Dec–30 Aug
    Peru79 115163 40184 28631 58637.502 Jan–23 Sep
    Portugal79 56684 6885122187136.501 Jan–15 Sep
    South Africa346 083378 05931 97615 49948.501 Jan–15 Sep
    Spain298 676350 59451 91829 84857.530 Dec–13 Sep
    Sweden61 60565 43438295846152.701 Jan–08 Sep
    Switzerland40 98841 8568681711197.130 Dec–09 Aug
    UK432 109491 26659 15741 60870.328 Dec–11 Sep
    USA1 829 3312 110 542281 211175 40662.429 Dec–22 Aug
    Total5 445 5446 162 160716 616460 92864.3

    Data are presented as n unless otherwise stated. #: calculated as the median number of deaths from the past 5 years (2015–2019) for the reported period; ¶: calculated as the number of reported COVID-19 deaths divided by the number of excess deaths and multiplied by 100.

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      Supplementary material 00766-2020.SUPPLEMENT

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    Underestimation of COVID-19 mortality during the pandemic
    Stacey Kung, Marjan Doppen, Melissa Black, Irene Braithwaite, Ciléin Kearns, Mark Weatherall, Richard Beasley, Nethmi Kearns
    ERJ Open Research Jan 2021, 7 (1) 00766-2020; DOI: 10.1183/23120541.00766-2020

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    Underestimation of COVID-19 mortality during the pandemic
    Stacey Kung, Marjan Doppen, Melissa Black, Irene Braithwaite, Ciléin Kearns, Mark Weatherall, Richard Beasley, Nethmi Kearns
    ERJ Open Research Jan 2021, 7 (1) 00766-2020; DOI: 10.1183/23120541.00766-2020
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