TY - JOUR T1 - Predictors of loss to follow-up of tuberculosis cases under the DOTS programme in Namibia JF - ERJ Open Research JO - erjor DO - 10.1183/23120541.00030-2019 VL - 6 IS - 1 SP - 00030-2019 AU - Dan Kibuule AU - Philomein Aiases AU - Nunurai Ruswa AU - Timothy William Rennie AU - Roger K. Verbeeck AU - Brian Godman AU - Mwangana Mubita Y1 - 2020/01/01 UR - http://openres.ersjournals.com/content/6/1/00030-2019.abstract N2 - Background In Namibia, one out of every 25 cases of tuberculosis (TB) is “lost to follow-up” (LTFU). This has impacted negatively on national efforts to end the disease by 2035. The aim of this study was to determine the trends and predictors of LTFU under the directly observed treatment short-course (DOTS) programme in Namibia.Methods The study involved a retrospective longitudinal analysis of a nationwide cohort of TB cases registered under the DOTS programme in Namibia from 2006 to 2015. The trends and predictors of LTFU among cases in the National Electronic TB Register of the National TB and Leprosy Program were respectively determined by interrupted time series and multivariate logistic regression analyses using R-Studio software.Results Out of 104 203 TB cases, 3775 (3.6%) were LTFU. A quarter (26%) of cases with poor outcomes were due to LTFU. The annual decline in cases of LTFU was significant between the first (2005–2010) and second (2010–2015) medium-term plan period for TB programme implementation (p=0.002). The independent predictors of LTFU were male sex (p=0.004), 15–24 years age group (p=0.03), provider of treatment (p<0.001), intensive phase (p=0.047) and living in border/transit regions (p<0.001). HIV co-infection and TB regimen were not significant predictors of LTFU.Conclusions There were declining trends in LTFU in Namibia. DOTS programmes should integrate socioeconomic interventions for young and middle-aged adult male TB cases to reduce LTFU.Loss to follow-up of tuberculosis patients is an important barrier to ending TB in high-TB-burden countries. The integration of social welfare among young and/or middle-aged men is critical in reducing loss to follow-up of TB patients. http://bit.ly/395WfBM ER -