TY - JOUR T1 - Mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comparing the GOLD 2015 and GOLD 2019 staging: a pooled analysis of individual patient data JF - ERJ Open Research JO - erjor DO - 10.1183/23120541.00253-2020 VL - 6 IS - 4 SP - 00253-2020 AU - Elena García Castillo AU - Tamara Alonso Pérez AU - Julio Ancochea AU - Maria Teresa Pastor Sanz AU - Pere Almagro AU - Pablo Martínez-Camblor AU - Marc Miravitlles AU - Mónica Rodríguez-Carballeira AU - Annie Navarro AU - Bernd Lamprecht AU - Ana S. Ramírez-García Luna AU - Bernhard Kaiser AU - Inmaculada Alfageme AU - Ciro Casanova AU - Cristóbal Esteban AU - Juan J. Soler-Cataluña AU - Juan P. de-Torres AU - Bartolomé R. Celli AU - Jose M. Marín AU - Gerben ter Riet AU - Patricia Sobradillo AU - Peter Lange AU - Judith Garcia-Aymerich AU - Josep M. Anto AU - Alice M. Turner AU - MeiLan K. Han AU - Arnulf Langhammer AU - Sigrid Anna Aalberg Vikjord AU - Alice Sternberg AU - Linda Leivseth AU - Per Bakke AU - Ane Johannessen AU - Toru Oga AU - Borja G. Cosío AU - Andrés Echazarreta AU - Nicolás Roche AU - Pierre-Régis Burgel AU - Don D. Sin AU - Milo A. Puhan AU - Jose Luis López-Campos AU - Laura Carrasco AU - Joan B. Soriano A2 - , Y1 - 2020/10/01 UR - http://openres.ersjournals.com/content/6/4/00253-2020.abstract N2 - In 2019, The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) modified the grading system for patients with COPD, creating 16 subgroups (1A–4D). As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aim to compare the mortality prediction of the 2015 and 2019 COPD GOLD staging systems.We studied 17 139 COPD patients from the 3CIA study, selecting those with complete data. Patients were classified by the 2015 and 2019 GOLD ABCD systems, and we compared the predictive ability for 5-year mortality of both classifications.In total, 17 139 patients with COPD were enrolled in 22 cohorts from 11 countries between 2003 and 2017; 8823 of them had complete data and were analysed. Mean±sd age was 63.9±9.8 years and 62.9% were male. GOLD 2019 classified the patients in milder degrees of COPD. For both classifications, group D had higher mortality. 5-year mortality did not differ between groups B and C in GOLD 2015; in GOLD 2019, mortality was greater for group B than C. Patients classified as group A and B had better sensitivity and positive predictive value with the GOLD 2019 classification than GOLD 2015. GOLD 2015 had better sensitivity for group C and D than GOLD 2019. The area under the curve values for 5-year mortality were only 0.67 (95% CI 0.66–0.68) for GOLD 2015 and 0.65 (95% CI 0.63–0.66) for GOLD 2019.The new GOLD 2019 classification does not predict mortality better than the previous GOLD 2015 system.GOLD 2019 staging system created 16 subgroups. GOLD 2015 and GOLD 2019 are not strong predictors of mortality, and do not have sufficient discriminatory power to be used as a tool for risk classification of mortality in patients with COPD. https://bit.ly/3idBuaN ER -