RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Lung function trajectory and biomarkers in the Tasmanian longitudinal health study JF ERJ Open Research JO erjor FD European Respiratory Society SP 00020-2021 DO 10.1183/23120541.00020-2021 A1 Dinh S. Bui A1 Alvar Agusti A1 Haydn Walters A1 Caroline Lodge A1 Jennifer L. Perret A1 Adrian Lowe A1 Gayan Bowatte A1 Raisa Cassim A1 Garun S. Hamilton A1 Peter Frith A1 Alan James A1 Paul S. Thomas A1 Debbie Jarvis A1 Michael J. Abramson A1 Rosa Faner A1 Shyamali C. Dharmage YR 2021 UL http://openres.ersjournals.com/content/early/2021/01/14/23120541.00020-2021.abstract AB Background and objective Different lung function trajectories through life can lead to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in adulthood. This study investigates if circulating levels of biomarkers can differentiate those with accelerated (AD) from normal decline (ND) trajectories.Methods The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) is a general population study that measured spirometry and followed up participants from ages 7 to 53 years. Based on their FEV1 trajectories from age 7 to 53 years, this analysis included those with COPD at age 53 years (60 with AD and 94 with ND) and controls (C, n=720) defined as never smokers with an average FEV1 trajectory. Circulating levels of selected biomarkers determined at 53 and 45 years of age were compared between trajectories.Results Results showed that CC16 levels (an anti-inflammatory protein) were lower and CRP (a pro-inflammatory marker) higher in the AD than in the ND trajectory. Higher CC16 levels were associated with a decreased risk of belonging to the AD trajectory (OR=0.79 [0.63–0.98] per unit increase) relative to ND trajectory. Higher CRP levels were associated with an increased risk of belonging to the AD trajectory (OR=1.07 [1.00, 1.13] per unit increase). Levels of CC16 (AUC=0.69 [95%CI: 0.56–0.81], p=0.002), CRP (AUC=0.63 [0.53–0.72], p=0.01) and the combination of both (AUC=0.72 [0.60–0.83], p<0.001) were able to discriminate between the AD and ND trajectories. Other quantified biomarkers (IL4, IL5, IL6, IL10 and TNFα) were not significantly different between AD, ND and C.Conclusions Circulating levels of CRP and CC16 measured in late adulthood identify different lung function trajectories (AD versus ND) leading to COPD at age 53 years.FootnotesThis manuscript has recently been accepted for publication in the ERJ Open Research. It is published here in its accepted form prior to copyediting and typesetting by our production team. After these production processes are complete and the authors have approved the resulting proofs, the article will move to the latest issue of the ERJOR online. Please open or download the PDF to view this article.Conflict of interest: Dr. Bui has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Agusti has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Walters has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Lodge has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Perret has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Lowe has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Bowatte has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Cassim has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Hamilton has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Frith has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. James has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Thomas has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Jarvis has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Abramson has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Faner has nothing to disclose.Conflict of interest: Dr. Dharmage has nothing to disclose.