TABLE 4

Prediction of relative risk and its 95% confidence interval of future pneumonia episodes analysed by unadjusted Poisson regression models in the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 cohort based on risk factors determined at the age of 31 years

AllMaleFemale
Relative risk (95% CI)p-valueSubjects n (%)Relative risk (95% CI)p-valueSubjects n (%)Relative risk (95% CI)p-value
Subjects n939245564836
Sex (n=9392)1.44 (1.21–1.71)<0.0014556 (48.5)4836 (51.5)
Obesity (n=6012)#
 BMI ≥30 kg·m−2 versus BMI <30 kg·m−21.07 (0.69–1.66)0.755208 (7.7)1.08 (0.58–2.01)0.801273 (8.2)1.07 (0.58–2.00)0.830
Waist (n=4289)
 High versus low0.08 (0.73–1.33)0.904514 (25.9)1.02 (0.65–1.59)0.940838 (36.3)0.99 (0.65–1.50)0.961
Smoking+ (n=8514)
 Current or former versus never1.71 (1.40–2.08)<0.0012537 (62.2)1.91(1.44–2.54)<0.0012210 (49.8)1.40 (1.05–1.86)0.020
Excessive alcohol consumption§ (n=5854)2.25 (1.60–3.17)<0.001297 (11.4)2.40 (1.58–3.64)<0.001155 (4.8)1.77 (0.93–3.37)0.085
Asthmaƒ (n=9392)1.91 (1.31–2.78)0.001124 (2.7)2.85 (1.85–4.40)<0.001159 (3.3)0.97 (0.46–2.05)0.930

The number of pneumonia episodes after 31-year follow-up was a dependent variable and gender, obesity, waist, smoking, excessive alcohol consumption and asthma were independent variables in the models. BMI: body mass index. #: BMI cut-off point 30 kg·m−2; : cut-off point ≥94 cm for males and ≥80 cm for females; +: any history of smoking versus never smoked; §: self-reported alcohol consumption (males ≥30 g·day−1, females ≥20 g·day−1); ƒ: doctor-diagnosed.