TABLE 1

Estimated incidence rate of AECOPD during the 1-year follow-up

GOLD grade at screening#Total subjects, nIncidence rate of AECOPD (95% CI)
Confirmed+Confirmed+potential§
All grades1971.27 (1.04–1.54)1.30 (1.07–1.58)
GOLD 2790.78 (0.54–1.14)0.81 (0.56–1.16)
GOLD 3991.51 (1.17–1.94)1.56 (1.20–2.01)
GOLD 4191.99 (1.37–2.89)1.99 (1.37–2.89)

AECOPD: acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; GOLD: Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease. #: GOLD 2=moderate airflow limitation, GOLD 3=severe airflow limitation, GOLD 4=very severe airflow limitation; : mean number of exacerbations per year from the negative binomial model (or Poisson model in cases of underdispersion); +: confirmed AECOPD defined as exacerbation events plus missed exacerbation events (missed exacerbations correspond to all morning alerts confirmed by a phone call, as well as cases with no morning alert for which there was no site visit but for which AECOPD medical records were available), n=249; §: potential AECOPD defined as all morning alerts confirmed by a phone call for which there was no site visit and for which no medical records were available, n=256.