TABLE 3

Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and F-1 score based on selected risk thresholds for specialist and event cohorts, and for utilisation-based and diagnosis-based models

	Utilisation-based model, specialist cohort, risk threshold					Diagnosis-based model, specialist cohort, risk threshold					Utilisation-based model, event cohort, risk threshold					Diagnosis-based model, event cohort, risk threshold
	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5
n^#	962	709	454	251	148	1016	768	517	300	108	3438	1397	570	284	101	4926	1427	555	122	29
Sensitivity %	0.960	0.820	0.607	0.371	0.231	0.969	0.820	0.646	0.437	0.163	0.729	0.460	0.267	0.158	0.065	0.812	0.371	0.198	0.056	0.014
Specificity %	0.219	0.500	0.735	0.878	0.936	0.144	0.412	0.668	0.850	0.949	0.628	0.869	0.956	0.981	0.994	0.439	0.854	0.950	0.990	0.998
PPV %	0.454	0.526	0.608	0.673	0.709	0.434	0.486	0.569	0.663	0.685	0.194	0.301	0.428	0.507	0.584	0.150	0.238	0.326	0.418	0.448
NPV %	0.891	0.804	0.734	0.674	0.642	0.874	0.772	0.736	0.690	0.626	0.950	0.929	0.914	0.905	0.897	0.950	0.917	0.906	0.895	0.892
F-1 score	0.617	0.641	0.607	0.479	0.348	0.600	0.610	0.605	0.527	0.263	0.306	0.364	0.329	0.241	0.116	0.254	0.290	0.247	0.099	0.028

Assessment was based on testing dataset only. ^#: number of eligible patients whose risk was above each risk threshold.